Episode 1394: Hard Cora
Date June 27, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about whether the Red Sox pulling a pitcher in the middle of a plate appearance was an instance of “Strategy,” share a Stat Blast about whether the platoon advantage is more pronounced early or late in plate appearances, and discuss a pitch-framing flare-up between Tyler Flowers and Willson Contreras, then answer listener emails about how different baseball could be and still be baseball, whether moving the mound back would lead to many more hit batters, whether teams should be buying low on fly-ball pitchers and the future of MLB’s home-run rate, and whether the Astros or another team with a reputation for building better players could deke their rivals by expressing interest in trading for players they don’t actually want. Topics * When during an at-bat is the platoon advantage greatest? * How different could baseball be? * Is moving the mound back dangerous? * Signing low fly-ball pitchers * Will offense trends regress or continue upward? * Changes to the baseball * Using your team image to fool rival front offices Intro Golden Earring, "Desperately Trying to be Different" Outro Death Cab for Cutie, "No Room in Frame" Banter * Episode 1382 follow-up: Alex Cora made a pitching change on a 3-2 count. Ben and Sam discuss the reasons for this change and if this was an instance of their 'strategy'. This discussion leads into Sam's Stat Blast. * Argument between Tyler Flowers and Wilson Contreras Email Questions * Dave (Trinity, FL): "If baseball were different, how different could baseball be and still be baseball? Baseball went gone through some pretty significant rule changes in the early years, but there haven't been many major changes since the introduction of the DH. What are the "untouchable" things about baseball that cannot be changed or it is no longer baseball? I think as long as you have a pitcher and a hitter, you can tinker with almost anything else (baseball ON THE MOON!) and still call it a version of baseball." * Henry: "I was helping a freshman study for his geometry exam the other day, and while we were reviewing Euclidean vectors I found myself wondering if there will be many more hit batters with the pitching rubber moved back to 62 feet 6 inches. With two more feet for the ball to travel, those errant pitches that deviate from their intended target will have farther to travel and will therefore deviate more widely. The pitches headed inside will be farther inside, and those balls that "ride in" on batters will have more distance to move, and might ride right into their hands or heads. Yes, there will be a little bit more time for batters to get out of the way, but that does not seem to offset the extra distance an errant pitch could move. Do you think this is a safety issue? Another argument for moving the mound six inches at a time, instead of a whopping two feet?" * Healy: "I was wondering if now would be the best time to give long term extensions to young pitchers with high contact rates especially those with high fly ball/home run rates. With the current climate of baseball, it’s easy to understand why teams would stay away from these types. Teams could theoretically acquire them for very little and/or sign them for very little. Might it be wise for a rebuilding team to bet on the baseball being altered to reduce home run rates over the next few years by signing young pitchers who they have analyzed to be possibly more successful in a less power-oriented environment?" * Cory: "A recent episode had a discussion about teams being paranoid about trading with the Astros, because if the Astros want a player, it probably means they think they can unlock something in him, so his original team should try to do it instead. What if the Astros started asking every team about players who are obviously terrible? Would teams, driven by paranoia, become convinced that Wilmer Difo has 40 home run power, or Sam Gaviglio could be a shut-down closer? Would it be more effective if they asked about prospects they knew the teams wouldn't trade, and then threw in some scrub just to mess with other team's evaluations? Has any team ever tried something like this, and would teams ever even find out what was happening?" Stat Blast * Thinking about Alex Cora's recent decision to switch pitchers mid-count, Sam wonders if a platoon advantage is bigger earlier or later in an at-bat. * Sam looked at the platoon advantage for every count involving left-handed batters. * Sam's research found that the pitcher's advantage is highest on 0-2 counts and overall highest on two strike counts. * Pitchers with the platoon advantage throw more strikes than pitchers without when comparing the same counts. Notes * Sam, on his platoon research, "I can't imagine someone trying to follow along with my Stat Blast". * Sam thinks that as long as you have a competitive hitter and competitive pitcher facing each other you could still call the sport baseball. Ben thinks that you need bases and runners actively advancing. * Dave's question is a similar type of question as Vinit's email from Episode 396. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1394: Hard Cora * Tyler Flowers and Wilson Contreras Beef Explained by Jake Mastroianni * Wilson and Contreras video * Tyler Flowers Is MLB's Most Improved Player by Ben Lindbergh * Moving The Mound Back May Not Help Hitters At All by J.J. Cooper * Moving The Mound Will Change Everything by Rob Arthur * Ohtani throws first bullpen session since surgery by Rhett Bollinger Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes